According to the latest research data from the Gaogong Industrial Research Institute for Energy Storage (GGII), China’s energy-storage lithium-battery market maintained the robust growth momentum of the first half of the year in the third quarter of 2025, with quarterly shipments reaching 165 GWh—a year-on-year increase of 65%. This figure not only sets a new quarterly shipment record but also signals that the industry has entered a phase of rapid expansion. With cumulative shipments for the first three quarters already totaling 430 GWh—more than 30% of the full-year total for 2024—GGII forecasts that full-year shipments will surpass 580 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth rate of over 75%. The energy-storage lithium-battery sector is now reshaping the global energy landscape at “China speed.”

  Q3 Boom: Structural Growth Driven by Demand

In the third quarter of 2025, the energy-storage lithium-battery market exhibited a “simultaneous increase in volume and price” trend. GGII notes that the primary drivers of this growth stem from three key sectors:

Surging demand for new-energy capacity integration: With year-on-year growth in PV and wind power installations and the concentrated commissioning of grid-side energy-storage projects, large-scale energy-storage systems—such as those powered by 314 Ah battery cells—are now the norm, with individual projects exceeding the GWh scale.

Expansion of the residential energy storage market: Rising demand for home energy storage systems in Europe and North America, coupled with domestic policies supporting distributed PV, is driving growth in shipments of small-capacity energy storage batteries.

Accelerating technological iteration: Mass production of 4C fast-charging batteries is slated for 2024, with validation of 6C batteries expected to be completed in 2025; the share of high-rate products will increase, reducing anode material consumption per GWh of energy storage systems by 3%, and further cost optimization will continue to stimulate demand.

Leading companies are maintaining high capacity utilization, with robust order books at CATL, BYD, EVE Energy, and others; in some cases, order volumes are even driving accelerated capacity expansion. For instance, CATL’s planned production capacity for energy-storage batteries in 2025 is set to double compared with 2024, yet this still falls short of fully meeting market demand.

  Year-Long Sprint: The Tight Supply-Demand Balance Behind 580 GWh

In the first three quarters, shipments of 430 GWh already exceeded 30% of the full-year total for 2024, and GGII forecasts that the fourth quarter will continue the “supply shortage and full-capacity production and sales” trend. This assessment is based on two core logics:

Ongoing policy benefits are being fully realized: China’s 14th Five-Year Plan for energy storage has entered the final sprint phase, with many regions mandating that the storage-to-renewable-capacity ratio be increased to 15%–20%; internationally, subsidies under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and localization requirements under the EU Battery Regulation have spurred a year-on-year surge in China’s exports of energy-storage batteries.

Enhanced industrial-chain synergy: By 2025, lithium iron phosphate cathode materials will account for nearly 74% of total shipments, while capacity in supporting segments such as electrolytes and separators will expand in tandem, establishing an integrated “battery–materials–system” supply chain that effectively shortens delivery cycles.

  Challenges and Opportunities Coexist: A Leap from Quantitative Change to Qualitative Transformation

Despite the continued improvement in market conditions, the industry must remain vigilant about three major risks:

 1. Structural overcapacity: Intensified homogeneous competition among low-end capacity, with some enterprises operating at less than 60% capacity utilization;

 2. Price-competition pressure: In 2025, the average tender price for energy-storage systems declined by 18% compared with 2024, putting downward pressure on corporate profit margins.

 3. Sustainability of technological innovation: Emerging technologies such as solid-state batteries and flow batteries pose a substitution threat to lithium-ion energy storage, necessitating accelerated breakthroughs in long-duration energy storage.

GGII recommends that companies focus on a “differentiation-plus-globalization” strategy: on the one hand, developing niche applications such as commercial and industrial energy storage and mobile energy storage; on the other hand, mitigating trade barriers and expanding international market share by establishing manufacturing facilities overseas, such as CATL’s German plant and BYD’s U.S. base.

  Future Outlook: Continued High Growth of Over 50% in 2026

As the “dual carbon” goals continue to deepen, lithium-ion energy storage batteries have become the cornerstone of the new energy system. According to GGII’s forecast, the industry will maintain a growth rate of over 50% in 2026, with market capacity exceeding 1,000 GWh. Rongke Bank believes that, in this energy revolution, China’s energy storage industry is leveraging its triple advantages—technology, cost efficiency, and scale—to lead the global energy storage market into a “China era.”